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Friday, May 18, 2012

San Antonio Spurs: How the Spurs Will Reach the NBA Finals Once More - Bleacher Report

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In the flurry of opinions about which team should win the Larry O’Brien trophy, the San Antonio Spurs are rarely considered. Their consistent dominance over the Western Conference is often overlooked because it is "usual" for a team of their caliber.

With a core of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, they have dominated the NBA for the better part of a decade, winning three championships. The on-court and off-court low maintenance personalities of their stars makes them invisible among the favourites to win the NBA championship, yet still display the keys to success.

During the regular season, they tied the Chicago Bulls for the league’s best record of 50-16. They have carried that success into the playoffs, sweeping the Utah Jazz in the first round and have a 2-0 series lead over the Los Angeles Clippers in the Western Conference semi-finals.

If the Spurs want to win another championship, all they need to do is continue their current play.

The Offense

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Executing a half-court offense is crucial when the playoffs arrive. So far, the Spurs have conquered this category with a league-leading 103.4 points per game in the postseason.

Not only that, they are also first in field goal percentage and three-point percentage. The deliberate, fundamental approach to this aspect of the game has been the epitome of the Spurs, and has proven successful.

They have won all but one game by double-digits, with the same premise applying to scoring over 100 points, absolutely devastating their opponents with their attack. The team leads postseason teams in assists at 23.0 per game, as well as sixth lowest in turning the ball over.

Tony Parker has led the way for San Antonio, averaging 18.2 point and 7.4 assists, orchestrating the offense to the best of his abilities. Tim Duncan is also a heavy contributor, putting up 16.6 points and 9.0 rebounds on .507 percent shooting, besting his regular season statistics.

Considering he has faced opposing big men like Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin, Duncan is seemingly defying expectations as commanding his team to victory. Yet of course, as a famous quotation goes, "offense wins games, defense wins championships."

The Defense

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As steady as their attack has been, so have their defensive schemes. Their steady, unhurried tactics makes it problematic for players to score efficiently. The Spurs are fifth in opponent points per game, second in opponent field goal percentage and third in opponent three-point percentage.

 San Antonio is also sixth at forcing turnovers, headlined by Kawhi Leonard’s 1.4 per contest. With the defenders being so dynamicâ€"ranging from Duncan on the block to Leonard on the wingâ€"every position is somewhat covered to ensure the Spurs are proficient guarding their assignments.

What was most impressive is limiting production, as Utah was held to 86.3 points per game in contract to their regular season average of 99.7. The Clippers are being held to 90 points in the second round, 7.5 below their season average.

Consequently, the Spurs are not only dictating the flow with their offense, but controlling it on the opposite end as well. 

The Bench

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As most GMs will tell you, having a competent bench is so important and essential to success. Thankfully, the Spurs have that. Their second unit is so diverse, it makes sure the team doesn’t miss a beat when the starters need some rest.

Stephen Jackson, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal and Manu Ginobili could start elsewhere, making the Spurs a dangerous team for the entire game.

Daniel Green made a huge leap under Gregg Popovich, becoming one of the better shooters in the league. He averaged 1.5 three-point field goals per game on an outstanding .436 percent for the season. Keeping him in the starting rotation allowed Ginobili to retain his role as sixth man, leading the reserves in scoring at 12.9 per game.

San Antonio’s second unit is not only skilled, but exceptionally deep as wellâ€"something many organizations wish they had. Yet this is only possible by means of another crucial aspect of a team.

The Coaching

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Having a good coach is exceedingly central to a team’s identity and achievement. If the personnel cannot communicate with the players, then their on-court chemistry and communication will be flawed. Through this, the team will struggle and cannot accomplish what every organization wishes: to win the NBA championship.

The Spurs are fortunate enough to have Gregg Popovich, a two-time Coach of the Year winner and one of the greatest teachers the NBA has ever seen. He has coached the team since the 1996-1997 season, commanding them to four championships in that span. Popovich has a win-loss record of 847-399, translating to a stellar .680 winning percentage.

Some may argue this is due to having Tim Duncan on the team for the majority of his career, but seeing as Popovich has been able to incorporate young and old players into the same system almost flawlessly, he deserves selected credit. His coaching staff is worthy of recognition additionally, as every team is scouted and the Spurs have a defensive game plan ready.

A noteworthy fact: The Spurs last loss came at the hands of the Los Angeles Lakers, on April 11th. Five weeks without a loss can undoubtedly be attributed to the hard work of the players, but also to the coaching in San Antonio.

Against the Thunder

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For the Spurs to reach the NBA Finals, they will undoubtedly be matched up with Oklahoma City. The Thunder are the favourites to make it to the final round of the playoffs, with claims that San Antonio will not be able to "keep up" with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.

However, the Spurs went 2-1 during the regular season with the Thunder. Despite their all-around defensive roster, they cannot contain San Antonio’s shooters. Even including the loss, the Spurs shot a combined 28-54 translating to a ridiculous .518 percent. Manu Ginobili did not participate in any of the matchups due to injury, so it’s one more problem the Thunder will have to deal with. Additionally, the team was able to figure out how to contain Durant and Westbrook’s scoring, evidenced by the tables below.

Durant

FGM

FGA

FG%

3PM

3PA

3P%

PTS

Season

9.7

19.7

.496

2.0

5.2

.387

28.0

V. Spurs

7.3

15.7

.468

1.0

3.7

.273

22.7

Westbrook

FGM

FGA

FG%

3PM

3PA

3P%

PTS

Season

8.8

19.2

.457

0.9

3.0

.316

23.6

V. Spurs

8.7

19.3

.448

1.0

3.3

.300

22.3

For Westbrook, there is only a slight difference in relation to his regular season averages. However, as shown last year against Dallas, slowing down Durant will force Westbrook into a shoot-first roleâ€"something that was unsuccessful and a cause for concern last season. Furthermore, Tony Parker was able to average 23.7 points and 7.7 assists against the Thunder defense. 

Conclusion

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In summary, expect the Spurs to be in the NBA Finals this season.

Their dominance on both sides of the ball, their outstanding bench, their coaching and most importantly, their chemistry, is second to none in the league. Their core of Duncan, Ginobili and Parker might be moving on in years, but their professionalism and taste for fundamentals allows them to still be effective.

The combination of Duncan down low, Ginobili’s shooting and playmaking off the bench and Parker’s quickness and ability to get into the paint will be too much for opposing teams. When the Spurs match up against Oklahoma City, it will be an interesting series.

Their three-point shooting will be too much, overcoming the scoring greatness of Durant and Westbrook.

Western Conference Finals forecast: heavy rain from downtown, but no signs of Thunder.

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