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Thursday, July 12, 2012

San Antonio Spurs: Predictions for Gregg Popovich's Rotation in 2012-13 - Bleacher Report

The San Antonio Spurs are coming off of a disappointing loss in the Western Conference Finals to the Oklahoma City Thunder. As they look to return to the playoffs in search of their fifth championship, we'll take a look at Gregg Popovich's possible 2012-13 rotation.

We'll break down the rotation into starters, sixth man and role players. As there are 240 available minutes in every game, we'll also approximate how many minutes each player will play.

The roster being used is accurate as of July 12, including reported deals with Tim Duncan, Danny Green and Boris Diaw.

Tony Parker

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Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Player Role: Starter at Point Guard

Played in 2011-12: 32.1 MPG

Minutes to Play in 2012-13: 33 MPG

Tony Parker will (and should) play the most minutes of anyone on the Spurs roster. Although coach Popovich isn't big on giving his stars heavy minutes, the point guard position is a little thin and he may be forced to give Parker extra time.

Parker is in his prime and as he goes, so will this team. If they expect to make a deep run in this year's playoffs, it will be because of Parker.

Tim Duncan

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Pool/Getty Images

Player Role: Starter at Center

Played in 2011-12: 28.2 MPG

Minutes to Play in 2012-13: 28 MPG

Although Tim Duncan is better suited and would rather play power forward, he will likely draw a lot of center responsibilities. He's now 36 years old and has seen his minutes diminish during the regular season; I see no reason that the trend won't continue.

Duncan was still effective and played a solid, efficient style on both ends of the court. He averaged 11.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes, which are in-line with his career averages.

Danny Green

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Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

Player Role: Starter at Shooting Guard

Played in 2011-12: 23.1 MPG

Minutes to Play in 2012-13: 28 MPG

It's time for Danny Green to play meaningful minutes every single night. On most teams, I'd say he would play 32-34 minutes but coach Popovich tends to scale back minutes during the regular season.

Green shot 43.6 percent from the three-point line and showed his team-first attitude last year. He lost a lot of his minutes in the playoffs to guys like Stephen Jackson but he took it in stride and will have a breakout season.

Kawhi Leonard

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Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Player Role: Starter at Small Forward

Played in 2011-12: 24.0 MPG

Minutes to Play in 2012-13: 28 MPG

Kawhi Leonard had an excellent rookie season, with averages of 7.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. He showed the ability to make threes as well with a 37.6 percent average.

As a very young and energetic player, I truly hope he stays out of Popovich's doghouse. Leonard could be something special and on a team that needs more athleticism, he should be a big part of the future.

Boris Diaw

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Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Player Role: Starter at Power Forward

Played in 2011-12: 20.3 MPG

Minutes to Play in 2012-13: 24 MPG

Depending on the matchup, Boris Diaw could spell Tim Duncan at center as well. After coming over in a midseason trade from the Charlotte Bobcats, Diaw put up 4.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game in his limited time.

In the playoffs, Diaw shot the lights out and probably earned himself a lot more money in the process. He shot 51.4 percent from the field, 50 percent from three and 75 percent from the free-throw line. I expect those numbers to fall off a bit, but he should still be productive.

Manu Ginobili

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Pool/Getty Images

Player Role: Sixth Man

Played in 2011-12: 23.3 MPG

Minutes to Play in 2012-13: 24 MPG

Manu Ginobili is still a talented offensive player but he battled injury last year and at age 34, it would be unreasonable to think he'll come back any stronger.

He's one of the best sixth men in the NBA and relishes his role coming off the bench. The fact is, over his career he's bounced around from starter to sixth man and has still produced at a very consistent rate, with 19.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per 36 minutes.

Stephen Jackson

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Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Player Role: Role Player

Played in 2011-12: 23.8 MPG

Minutes to Play in 2012-13: 22 MPG

Stephen Jackson is the kind of player that coach Popovich will lean on one night and will keep on the bench for others. He can get hot in an instant, as he showed against the Oklahoma City Thunder in last year's playoffs.

Jackson can fill in at shooting guard and small forward and in a real pinch, he could play power forward. After shooting 60.5 percent from three and 93.3 percent from the free-throw line in the playoffs, he'll likely find himself on the court at key moments in games. 

Matt Bonner

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Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Player Role: Role Player

Played in 2011-12: 20.4 MPG

Minutes to Play in 2012-13: 20 MPG

Matt Bonner makes his living on the perimeter as a 6'10" three-point specialist. He's shot 41.5 percent over his career and 42 percent last year. He'll be counted on to stretch the defense again off the bench.

As a compliment to someone who can drive and dish like Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker, Bonner can hang out on the three-point line and be free to fire. He'll play mostly at the forward position but could shift to center in a serious bind.

Tiago Splitter

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Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Player Role: Role Player

Played in 2011-12: 19 MPG

Minutes to Play in 2012-13: 18 MPG

Tiago Splitter isn't a typical 27-year-old NBA player as he has only two years of NBA experience. He's been really solid as a role player with averages of 9.3 points and 5.2 rebounds in his 19 minutes off the bench.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Splitter get some spot starts here or there, especially if Boris Diaw struggles and they need some size next to Tim Duncan.

What's Left?

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Steve Dykes/Getty Images

After the nine players we've discussed here, there are still 15 minutes available to be played. The Spurs will need to decide on a backup point guard and whomever they sign between now and the regular season should soak up those minutes.

Last year, Gary Neal got most of those minutes, albeit in more of a shooting guard role. 

Like this article? Check out my blog over at HoopsHabit.com! Show your support by becoming my fan here on Bleacher Report and follow me on Twitter to be the first to know when my newest articles arrive!

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