You've seen the stat already: In the playoffs, teams that win Game 5 after going in tied 2-2 have won the series 83.5 percent of the time (137-27), according to NBA.com.
Over the past 36 hours, the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat have suddenly found themselves going up against the wrong side of history.
Both teams dropped Game 5 at home, sending them on the road for a must-win Game 6. After both teams opened up a 2-0 series lead a week ago, the thought of finding both of them in this situation is rather unfathomable.
Instead of resigning themselves to their fate and submitting to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics, respectively, now's the time when the Spurs and Heat must dig deeper than ever to stay alive in the conference finals.
Let's face it. While the Thunder and Celtics have each ripped off three straight wins, it's not like any of the four remaining teams are overmatched. Heat-Celtics Game 4 went to overtime after LeBron James and Udonis Haslem couldn't connect at the end of regulation, and Dwyane Wade had a wide-open three-point attempt at the end of overtime that would have put Miami up 3-1 in the series.
Likewise, the Spurs were only down two points to the Thunder with less than a minute remaining before James Harden pulled up in the face of Kawhi Leonard and drained a three.
Yes, the Spurs got blown out by 20 points in Game 3, and no, the closeness of the Boston-Miami scores doesn't reflect how dominantly confident the Celtics look on the court compared to the Heat.
Still, both the Spurs and the Heat know that one strong effort in Game 6 shifts the momentum in the series back to them.
Which team will win their Game 6 and extend the series?
Which team will win their Game 6 and extend the series?
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Miami Heat.
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San Antonio Spurs.
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Neither.
Here's a brief look at what each team needs to do in Game 6 to even the series at 3-3.
Miami Heat
Transition defense. Transition defense. Chris Bosh. Transition defense.
Rajon Rondo laid out the gauntlet during a Game 4 halftime interview with Doris Burke (via ESPNBoston.com), saying the Celtics were taking advantage of the Heat "complaining and crying to the referees in transition."
In Game 5, Rondo proved prophetic. With just under 100 seconds left in the game, Wade drove into the paint and avoided a swarm of Celtics for an astoundingly acrobatic layup, theatrical even for his high standards.
The only problem was, the Heat forgot to run back on defense.
Five seconds later, Paul Pierce drew a foul and drained two free throws to give the Celtics a lead they wouldn't relinquish the rest of the night.
On the TV broadcast, Jeff van Gundy excoriated the Heat for their lack of defensive effort on that particular play. To add insult to injury, he agitatedly counted the number of seconds ("one-one thousand, two-one thousand...") it took for the Heat players to match up with their respective Celtics, saying it was inexcusable to take as long as they did.
Without a fully healthy Bosh, the Heat aren't a strong enough team to afford anything short of full effort from their players. They can't play lazy defense against these Celtics, or their season will end Thursday night.
And speaking of Bosh: If he was healthy enough to go 14 minutes last night, he needs to go 25-30 minutes in Game 6. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra also can't afford to play matchup games with Bosh and Kevin Garnett, as he did in Game 5 (mainly putting Bosh in when K.G. was heading to the bench).
Expect Chris Bosh to go more than 14 minutes on Thursday night.
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
When the game slows down late in the fourth quarter, as is virtually inevitable in Game 6, the Heat need Bosh's presence on the floor to give themselves a reasonable counter for K.G., who's been murdering them this series (26 points, 11 rebounds in Game 5).
Even if Bosh plays the role of decoy on offense, the threat of his shot should theoretically open up driving lanes for Wade and James, and he's got the size to affect K.G.'s shot on defense, too.
Stiffen up the transition defense and add a side of more Bosh, and the Heat aren't out of this series just yet.
San Antonio Spurs
After looking near invincible the first two games of this series, the Spurs suddenly appear tragically mortal. Tim Duncan's face at the end of Game 5 said it all.
These Thunder youngbloods aren't interested in taking lumps from their elders anymore. After falling in a competitive first-round series to the Los Angeles Lakers in 2010, then succumbing to the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference finals last year, the Thunder appear primed to clinch their first NBA Finals berth together.
"We never just thought that we were supposed to wait our turn," Thunder superstar Kevin Durant said after Game 5, via ESPN.com. "We always wanted to go and take everything."
Spurs coach Gregg Popovich already pulled out his traditional trump card before Game 5â€"putting Manu Ginobili in the starting lineupâ€"which leaves the Spurs short on radical moves to make for Game 6.
Coach Pop will presumably continue playing frontcourt roulette, trying to find an adequate partner for Duncan, but there aren't any major lineup changes coming to bail the Spurs out.
These two guys need to get going for the Spurs to still have a chance in the series.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Instead, Pop needs to challenge the competitive spirits of Duncan and Tony Parker, both of whom can't continue to struggle if the Spurs plan to win this series.
In the postgame broadcast on Monday night, Charles Barkley said that Duncan's 18-point, 12-rebound effort in Game 5 wasn't enough. For the Spurs to win, Duncan needs to take over the game if the Thunder keep guarding him one-on-one, Barkley said. Shaquille O'Neal, Barkley's fellow big man broadcast partner, concurred.
Even including a Game 3 clunker (only 11 points and two rebounds), Duncan's 15-point, nine-rebound, three-assist averages this series appear to suggest that he's been pulling his 36-year-old weight. But Barkley and Shaq were completely right.
Duncan needs to take one look at what Garnett's doing to the Miami Heat right now, then go out and attempt to emulate it in Game 6. The Big Fundamental needs to take over and dominate one-on-one matchups with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka.
Meanwhile, the Spurs need to get Parker's all-around game going. He's only mustered 12 assists in the past three games combined (after dishing 14 in the first two games of the series, both Spurs wins).
The Thunder stymied Parker's offensive flow by siccing Thabo Sefolosha on him starting in Game 3, and he hasn't yet found his rhythm again.
The Spurs need to spend the early parts of Game 6 focusing on getting their Big Three going offensively. Manu Ginobili held his own in Game 5 with 34 points, seven rebounds and six assists. If Duncan or Parker can't step up on Wednesday, the Spurs very well may be going fishing for the summer.
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